Weather experts are tracking when the next hurricane could impact the United States in October as the 2025 hurricane season does not end until the end of November. As Lorenzo develops as a tropical depression in the Atlantic, a new tropical wave is forming off the cost of Africa that multiple weather models project could become a hurricane that will head through the Caribbean before moving north toward the southeastern coastline of America. Here’s the hurricane forecast for mid- to late-October.
Will a hurricane be hitting the US this week in mid-October?
Fortunately, weather models do not expect a hurricane to be hitting the US by the end of the week, but a tropical wave could become a named storm in the Caribbean by some time late next week from October 21 to 25. If the storm does become strong enough to become a tropical depression, it will be named Melissa.
As noted by meteorologist Brian Shields (otherwise known as Mr. Weatherman on YouTube) on October 15, 2025, two weather models have this system off the coast of Africa becoming a hurricane. The more aggressive American GFS model has it forming into a hurricane by late next week and developing within the Caribbean Sea before potentially moving north toward the States. Moreover, the European model has it also developing into a hurricane by late next week but already coming close to the Florida coastline near the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas.
Meanwhile, the Canadian GEM model projects that the wave will become a tropical storm by early next week and impacting Puerto Rico, Barbados, and Antigua & Barbuda. This is more or less in agreement with the German ICON model that has it become a tropical storm to the south of Jamaica by mid next week.
That said, there’s still about a week before meteorologists will know more about where this tropical wave is heading and how strong it will be. While the storm will likely draw strength from the high ocean temperatures in the Caribbean, wind shear could lessen the intensity of the storm.
