The 2026 Oscars delivered several surprises and notable snubs as final results diverged from pre-ceremony predictions and betting market expectations.
List of all major surprise winners and snubs at Oscars based on 2026 odds
In the week leading up to the 98th Academy Awards, betting markets and expert polls suggested relatively clear favorites in several categories. Odds compiled from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gold Derby placed Timothée Chalamet ahead in the Best Actor race with roughly 52% support, while Michael B. Jordan followed with around 38%.
Predictions also heavily favored Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Adapted Screenplay at about 95% and Ryan Coogler for Best Original Screenplay at roughly 96%, showing where expectations stood before the ceremony.
However, the March 15 broadcast on ABC produced several outcomes and moments that differed from those projections or stood out as historic milestones. From competitive races to unusual ties and omissions during the ceremony, the night included a number of surprises and notable snubs.
Surprise: A Tight Best Actor Race
Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor for Sinners, prevailing over fellow nominees Leonardo DiCaprio and Timothée Chalamet. He said during his speech, “I stand here because of the people that came before me: Sidney Poitier, Denzel Washington, Halle Berry, Jamie Foxx, Forrest Whitaker, Will Smith.” Meanwhile, Timothée Chalamet’s Marty Supreme did not win any awards despite receiving nine nominations. Leonardo DiCaprio also won many prediction lists and fan picks, but lost!
Surprise: A Rare Horror Recognition in Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan won Best Supporting Actress for Weapons, marking a rare instance of the Academy recognizing a performance in a horror film.
Surprise: Unexpected Tie in Live Action Short Film
The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva shared Best Live Action Short Film after presenter Kumail Nanjiani announced, “It’s a tie. I’m not joking. It’s actually a tie.”
Surprise: Historic Milestone in Cinematography
Autumn Durald Arkapaw won Best Cinematography for Sinners, becoming the first woman in Academy Awards history to win the category.
Snub: Frontrunner Falls Short in Supporting Actor
Delroy Lindo, widely viewed as a frontrunner for Sinners, lost Best Supporting Actor to Sean Penn for One Battle After Another.
Snub: Omissions During the In Memoriam Segment
The televised In Memoriam segment omitted several names including Eric Dane, James Van Der Beek, and Robert Carradine, though the names were later listed on the official Oscars website.
Surprise: Inaugural Casting Category Result
The Academy introduced the Casting category for the first time, and Cassandra Kulukundis won the inaugural award for One Battle After Another despite prediction markets favoring Francine Maisler for Sinners.
Originally reported by Anubhav Chaudhry on ComingSoon.net.
